Tuberculosis (TB) is the world’s deadliest infectious disease, killing over a million people annually. While the century-old BCG vaccine protects young children, it leaves adolescents and adults vulnerable—and they’re the ones who are most likely to spread TB. New vaccines targeting this gap could arrive by 2030, but countries, manufacturers, and funders need to prepare now.
CHAI, Gavi, and MMGH Consulting created the first global demand forecast for these vaccines, consulting 120+ stakeholders in TB-affected countries. The report projects four scenarios with annual demand ranging from 15 million to 120 million vaccine courses depending on rollout strategy—whether countries focus narrowly on high-risk groups or implement broader vaccination campaigns.
While uncertainty related to key product characteristics, availability of funding, and global policy recommendations for novel TB vaccines remains, the WHO TB Vaccine Accelerator Finance & Access Working Group recommend the “high-demand” scenario (~90-120 million courses annually) as the best balance of health impact and feasibility, targeting adolescents plus catch-up vaccination in high-burden areas.
This forecast helps:
- Manufacturers plan production capacity
- Donors estimate funding requirements
- Global organizations coordinate equitable access
- Countries evaluate introduction strategies
Download the report to learn about the projected demand for novel TB vaccines and what it will take to realize it.
